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Space Command, reentry happened about 6 a.m. About 88% of the world's population, or 7 billion people, were at risk. trajectory placed the rocket plummeting back to Earth on Friday about 8:24 a.m. "Without it, it's really hard for us to improve our models." "How is it built? What is the structure like? What is it made of? How is it distributed within the vehicle? All of that is hard data that the Chinese could supply for the world, for others to improve their predictions," Muelhaupt said. For example, knowing if the rocket was made of aluminum, which has a lower melting point, or titanium, which can survive intense heat on reentry, would help researchers know how much of the rocket body will survive its fall back to Earth and the associated risk. If China provided information about what the rocket was made of and other factors, the models would be more accurate, experts said. So, knowing all the conditions that feed into understanding when a hurricane is going to hit (is) very similar to this, as far as there are all sorts of data that if we knew every little detail, our models would be much better." "We didn't know exactly where on Florida it would hit, but as we got closer to the actual event, it got more clear. "We knew it was going to hit Florida," Woods said. WHAT IS THE 'CONE OF UNCERTAINTY' IN HURRICANE FORECASTS? Lael Woods, a space traffic management expert at Aerospace Corp., compared debris modeling to spaghetti models used for tracking Hurricane Ian. The models did include the lower half of North America, Africa and most of Australia. Most of Europe was too far north, and in the U.S., areas north of Chicago were out of CORDS' current model by Thursday night. (Image: Aerospace Corporation)Īhead of the crash, experts said it was easier to say where the rocket would not fall than where it would fall. Areas not under the line are not exposed to the debris. How predicting a falling rocket is like forecasting hurricanesĪerospace Corporation's reentry prediction model shows possible reentry locations of the Chinese Long March 5B booster lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track. These unplanned reentries left "big chunks of metal where people are," Muelhaupt said. In May 2021, a Long March rocket booster plummeted back to Earth, causing property damage on the Arabian Peninsula.
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WHY A SPACECRAFT CLAW WAS BUILT TO CLEAN UP SPACE JUNK According to images shared by Aerospace Corp., part of the rocket fairing or nose cone landed in the Philippine Sea. Witnesses in Malaysia reported seeing bright objects in the sky that resembled meteors but said it was likely debris. The 25-ton rocket booster came tumbling back to Earth on July 30 over Southeast Asia. On July 24, a Long March-5B Y3 rocket launched from the Wenchang Space Launch Site in China, sending up the laboratory module for the orbiting station. "Here we go again," CORDS reentry and debris expert Ted Muelhaupt told reporters on Wednesday.
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Between 20% and 40% of the 24-ton booster is expected to survive its plummet to Earth. Previous launches of Long March rockets also made uncontrolled reentries. It is critical that all spacefaring nations are responsible and transparent in their space activities and follow established best practices, especially, for the uncontrolled reentry of a large rocket body debris – debris that could very well result in major damage or loss of life."Īerospace Corporation's Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS) had been publicly tracking the rocket body known as CZ-5B and sharing its reentry predictions. "This is the PRC’s fourth uncontrolled reentry since May 2020, and each of these reentries have been the largest in last 30 years. "They did not share specific trajectory information which is needed to predict landing zones and reduce risk," Nelson said in a statement. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson condemned the People's Republic of China for the reentry calling it an "unnecessary risk."
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